Ready. Aim. Aim. Aim...

"There is more risk in not doing something than in doing it," a friend told me, complaining about a frustrating situation at work. The global head of his company's IT department was balking at a major system-wide software upgrade he was urging because there was "too much security risk involved," she claimed.

He was told to get back to her when "the risk factor was zero."

"Some people say they have a zero-tolerance for risk. That's impossible," my friend grumbled. "There is no such thing as zero-tolerance of risk. If you get on a plane, it could crash. Zero-tolerance of risk means you'd never leave your house because you could get hit by a bus."

I emailed him this timely Dilbert cartoon featuring a recurring character: "Mordac, the Preventer of Information Services."

A lot of people are operating like Mordac these days, as their companies are mired in a difficult economy. It's caution bred by fear of making the wrong choice. Yet in today's circumstances, risk is unavoidable if a business is to get a leg up on the competition and thrive in the long run.

A baseball player batting .333 is exceptional. Yet that batting average also means that for every three at-bats, he failed twice. The better .333 hitters maximize even their outs, "working the count," fouling off countless pitches, tiring the pitcher while giving his team the opportunity to get insights into the pitcher's style they can take advantage of later.

If Apple Inc. were a baseball player, it would be batting close to 1.000 - and that's after taking a lot more risk than stepping in against a Major League fastballer. In the 10 years since Steve Jobs rejoined the company, Apple has shaken up numerous businesses (desktop computing, music, and mobile communications), and created entire new niches with its iMac, iTunes, iPod and iPhone product lines.

And now Silicon Valley is abuzz with rumors that Apple is about to reinvent the publishing industry with some kind of electronic tablet/reader (see "Answers to Unasked Questions" below). Based on what they've achieved in the past 10 years, I believe the rumors. But even if nothing comes of it, Apple will manage to "work the count" as the rumor mill keeps the competition guessing and scrambling.

Apple is willing to take risks like that, even in the face of a lousy economy - or perhaps because of it - since no one else is really stretching. Look at the copycats they compete with: Microsoft, Dell, Motorola, Sony, Nokia, Palm, and RIM. When was the last time one among that group took a serious risk and introduced a truly original idea?

The problem that plagues those companies is the fear of failure and its implications, a fear that usually originates at the top. The risk-aversion is passed down the org chart. Employees mirror the way managers think and operate. If they see managers operating in a risk-averse manner, they withdraw and keep their heads down.

This is ultimately about communications. Leaders' and managers' behaviors and actions communicate far more than their words, and if leaders and managers demonstrate a distaste for risk, they are communicating it clearly.

Risk-taking defines Steve Jobs and his Apple culture; so changing the game is not a risk to Apple. In a time of constant change, a business unwilling to create and drive change like Apple will itself ultimately be overwhelmed by external changes forced upon it.

To Sony, Microsoft, Motorola and others, risk is anathema. They act on proven concepts. Sony and Microsoft launched their retail stores only after Apple had paved the way with its enormously successful Apple Store. Sony came out with a desktop PC that's "built into an elegant widescreen LCD panel." Hmmm, looks like an Apple iMac. Motorola rolled out its Droid, an iPhone wannabe that, I predict, will flop. Microsoft introduced its latest "game changer," Windows 7, another Mac OS rip-off.

Businesses are founded by people who take risks - often huge risks with their own personal savings. The irony is that once those companies become successful, grow and add people, risk-taking becomes a foreign concept. Management moves from quarter to quarter, seeking to sustain a certain level of revenue growth, usually by doing the same things, adding little flourishes to make the old seem new. Few will make the big gamble to reinvent themselves or an entire industry the way Apple keeps doing.

Meanwhile, as my friend noted, his best people are leaving, running from the cautious culture. The better people in any organization want to be challenged. They want to be able to take risks, to try their new ideas. They don't want to have to keep their heads down.

American businessman and oilman T. Boone Pickens once said, "Be willing to make decisions. That's the most important quality of a good leader. Don't fall victim to what I call the 'ready-aim-aim-aim syndrome.' You must be willing to fire."

At its heart, that's what risk is all about: people willing to make decisions, to say "yes" to risk. Many of us have experienced the corporate environment where "everyone has the power to say 'no,' but no one has the authority to say 'yes'."

This is a time for leaders to say "yes," to encourage their people to pursue cutting edge ideas, risks that might fail, but that might also succeed and reinvent their companies, opening new realms of opportunity.

"Daring ideas are like chessmen moved forward.
They may be beaten, but they may start a winning game."

Johann Wolfgang von Goethe